When conducting the survey, independent expertsit is clear that most people are worried about whether the dollar will fall. The interest of Russian residents is primarily due to the fact that it is the exchange rate of the American currency that determines the value of imports, and therefore the price of the overwhelming majority of the output. There is a very simple relationship. The high cost of black gold provides the influx of dollars to the domestic market, the ruble is actively strengthened, and the inhabitants of the country can purchase goods at an affordable cost. If the cost of oil falls, the picture becomes completely opposite, and the standard of living drops sharply.
Budget mismatch in 2015
As early as November 2014 it became quite obvious thatcompiled budget for 2015 and does not closely correspond to reality. The expenses were planned taking into account that a barrel of black gold will cost at least $ 96 on the world market. Starting from this indicator, the dollar exchange rate in banks during 2015 should not exceed 37 rubles. An unexpected surprise already took place in November 2014. By that time, the exchange rate of the American currency was 48 rubles. By mid-December of the same year, he grew to 60 rubles. The peak was reached at a rate of almost 68 rubles. During the pre-New Year's crisis, world experts did not dare to talk about the fall of the exchange rate. The forecasts were concentrated around the further growth of the currency. Some experts talked about reaching a mark of 100 rubles for one dollar. Not only the fall of oil, but other basic factors have become prerequisites for the negative development of events.
What is the situation with the budget deficit?
Experts, given the budget deficit in connection with thethe reduction in the inflow of currency due to the fall in oil prices, suggest a possible, albeit not complete, recovery of the exchange rate. There are significant prerequisites for both a fall and an increase in the currency. Everything will depend on how the situation in the world oil market develops further. While we can say that in the near future the dollar in Russia will fall slightly, which has a direct bearing on the rehabilitation of the value of black gold. While the largest oil-producing countries are restoring their financial reserves after a large-scale drawdown, the dollar will decline. If the current rate corresponds to 54.5 rubles per dollar, you can expect to decrease to 46-48 rubles. Imposing the situation on the cost of oil, which today trades at $ 66.6 per barrel with a strong uptrend, you can already say that the dollar in the market will fall. In June, an important meeting of the OPEC member states will take place, at which decisions that play an important role in pricing the oil market and, therefore, affecting the dollar exchange rate in Russia will be made.
Ambiguous political situation
The world media repeatedly heard information about theThe fact that after the annexation of the Crimea and the parallel confrontation in the East, Ukraine was sanctioned with respect to Russia. They drastically struck many sectors of the economy and left a negative imprint on the financial situation in the country. The most affected oil production and military industry, the revenues from which form the bulk of the state budget and which supported the dollar in Russia at the optimal level. The main problem is that there is no possibility to take loans in Western financial institutions. Payment of payments on previously issued loans forces the government to actively buy dollars, which automatically leads to their appreciation.
What forecasts can be made by analyzing the policy of Russia?
Answer the question of whether the dollar will fall,based on the political situation in the country, is very problematic. Sanctions against Russia, Western states are not simply not abolished, but also toughened by places. The inability to take cheap foreign currency loans was supplemented by the massive withdrawal of foreign investors from the country, which was accompanied by the outflow of foreign currency. Corruption and severe pressure from the authorities on business have caused the transfer of domestic business to offshore. All these facts indicate that the dollar exchange rate in banks will not change radically in the near future. Let's assume that it is rolled back against the backdrop of a slight increase in the cost of oil, but analysts do not recommend a drastic change until the conflict is exhausted both with Ukraine and with the countries of Europe and America.
Forecast on the basis of internal state phenomena
In addition to external factors, last year'sPre-New Year's crisis was initiated and internal state problems. Over the past 15 years, the country has not managed to change the raw material model of the economy to the modern one. The oil industry practically consumed all available resources, and the distribution of funds between the state economic segments was uneven. The excessive development of the oil industry caused the decline of other economic directions. In the end, we could see a very high dollar. The forecast for further appreciation of the US currency can be made, based on the fact that at the moment no structural reforms are being conducted. Without a drastic restructuring of the economy, the situation will not change, and consequently, the ruble exchange rate will remain insufficiently strong.
What makes prediction difficult?
The expert opinion on the issue of whetherwhether the dollar falls, almost drastically. Nobody gives confident guarantees of the perspective currency movement. If at the end of 2014 most experts confidently proved the ruble's move to a mark of one hundred units for $ 1, today the opinion has changed. Analysts are inclined to the fact that the dollar rate is falling and confidently retains its trend. Difficulties in forecasting cause numerous speculative transactions with the US currency, which, in the face of its deficit in the country, cause sharp fluctuations. The dynamics of the dollar depends on the payment of debt by large Russian companies. For example, only in December last year and in January this year, about $ 32-33 billion of debt was repaid. The purchase of currency on the interbank market leads to a jump in quotations and a rush of the population in the absence of compensation from the Central Bank.
Central Bank policy can determine the dollar exchange rate
The decision of the Central Bank on infusions oninternational market. Despite the fact that the Russian government let the national currency float freely, it reserved the right to adjust the value of the ruble in extreme situations. Considering that Russia is one of the largest gold and currency reserves in the world, one can speak of the country's ability to contain the exchange rate of the national currency exactly as much as it needs. At any time, the dollar may adjust the CB. If a printing press is launched in the framework of monetary policy and unjustified money launches, the US currency will sharply soar, threatening the devaluation of the ruble. If the flow of unjustified money is still tightly controlled by the government, one can consider the prospect of strengthening the ruble and the fall of the dollar.
Moderately optimistic forecasts
There are only three categories of forecasts. It is moderately optimistic, optimistic and pessimistic. Considering each of the variants of events, we can talk about whether the dollar will fall. Moderate optimists rely on the powerful economy of Russia and on the inability of Europe to develop without domestic energy carriers. Analysts operate on the fact that low oil prices are unprofitable to the whole world, and soon the situation will stabilize both in the world oil market and in the Russian economy. They carefully study the dollar. The forecast of them stops at a rate of 38-42 rubles by the end of 2015.
Optimistic views on the situation and the dollar exchange rate
The fact that the dollar is falling, say and the inveterateoptimists. This is mainly representatives of the government apparatus and people close to them. They do not consider the actual situation, but political motives. Their opinion is based on the fact that the fall of oil is the work of the American government and their partners. The purpose of the opponent is military and political concessions from Russia. The meaninglessness of such a development in the future should be cleared by the end of summer 2015. According to forecasts, the new 2016 the country will meet, staying in pre-crisis condition. We can not take into account only the fact that because of the fall in the cost of black gold, America itself suffers on the world market, since shale oil is not cheap in development.
Pessimists - the majority of analysts and experts
The largest group of experts believes thatdollar, the Central Bank, which today offers at a rate of 54.5, will never return to the pre-crisis channel. Liberal-minded analysts point to the growth of the currency to a mark of 100 rubles. The reasons for this are the nonpayment crisis, the credit crisis and the bankruptcy of a large number of banks and enterprises. There are talks that Russia can turn in the direction of the command economy and even form an updated format of the USSR. The expectation of an incredibly deep crisis compels us to guard against social upheavals and a parade of sovereignties.
Here it is worth indenting and attestingthe fact that none of the serious forecasts made over the past six months has not been justified by half. This gives good reasons to believe that it is meaningless, or even more likely, to forecast the direction of the dollar's exchange rate, since the direct link between the currency and economic indicators has long been broken.